* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 93 84 75 56 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 100 93 84 75 56 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 90 80 71 54 42 33 26 20 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 10 11 11 16 15 15 21 20 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -6 -6 -4 0 0 5 9 3 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 97 82 109 147 164 243 234 256 222 243 249 257 248 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.2 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 122 117 111 103 97 96 95 96 97 99 101 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 -49.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -49.7 -50.2 -50.5 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 69 67 67 64 61 54 51 46 40 36 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 31 30 30 27 24 21 19 16 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 78 59 50 52 43 42 51 51 42 22 20 9 31 200 MB DIV 72 35 -3 -2 11 14 8 15 -5 4 -14 0 2 700-850 TADV -2 3 0 -5 0 3 6 4 3 2 0 0 -6 LAND (KM) 412 416 442 415 396 412 484 568 626 705 785 873 936 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.1 26.1 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.9 116.5 117.1 117.6 118.7 119.8 120.8 121.7 122.6 123.5 124.5 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -26. -36. -46. -53. -59. -63. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -19. -21. -25. -30. -32. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -21. -30. -49. -68. -85. -97.-108.-119.-127.-135. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##