* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 22 23 25 26 26 28 32 36 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 22 22 23 25 26 26 28 32 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 19 19 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 23 24 23 20 23 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 252 259 268 276 267 265 259 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 142 142 145 154 154 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 144 145 148 158 156 156 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 44 46 46 50 51 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -17 -22 -22 -24 -30 -31 -24 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 3 24 17 -5 -4 -12 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -9 -10 -4 -3 -6 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1224 1149 1090 1046 955 700 584 308 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 48.1 49.8 51.5 53.3 56.8 60.2 63.6 67.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 34 24 20 23 41 55 40 51 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/09/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED