* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082015 09/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 57 60 59 50 49 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 57 60 59 50 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 54 57 53 47 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 19 13 11 5 8 33 40 53 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 1 2 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 242 227 221 219 192 280 272 256 262 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 24.5 18.2 15.1 15.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 140 136 132 130 104 79 76 78 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 116 117 115 113 112 91 73 73 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 44 44 46 48 57 70 65 58 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 8 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -27 -20 -17 -26 -35 13 55 57 -3 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -25 -6 2 -1 14 25 70 45 44 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 2 11 5 18 15 66 62 50 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1444 1433 1420 1340 1260 1028 708 402 169 139 989 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.9 32.6 34.7 37.7 41.3 44.9 47.4 48.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.4 61.3 61.1 61.3 61.5 61.8 62.0 61.3 58.4 51.0 39.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 7 9 13 17 19 24 33 39 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 9 9 13 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 22. 27. 30. 29. 20. 19. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)