* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 28 26 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 35 34 34 36 40 37 33 37 27 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 1 1 0 4 2 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 282 284 281 279 279 271 299 332 329 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 133 134 136 138 139 140 138 134 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 45 48 51 55 56 56 55 63 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 15 15 14 12 12 11 10 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -19 -23 -20 -20 -22 -5 3 9 51 111 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -16 -9 -8 -6 -5 14 -24 -34 9 86 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -13 -10 -10 -9 -6 -5 1 19 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 564 513 454 404 351 311 319 370 464 639 866 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.7 27.0 28.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.5 155.3 156.1 156.9 157.7 159.2 160.3 161.2 162.1 163.1 164.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 6 1 7 13 14 19 27 27 5 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -28. -35. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -10. -11. -13. -18. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -11. -15. -22. -27. -35. -43. -55. -60. -63. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##