* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * LINDA EP152015 09/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 71 63 52 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 80 71 63 52 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 80 72 64 56 44 35 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 13 15 13 20 19 23 22 25 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 1 1 0 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 106 141 173 191 216 235 240 237 239 254 256 256 255 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 117 113 108 101 97 96 95 96 96 99 102 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -51.2 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 62 59 55 50 49 45 41 34 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 26 23 22 18 16 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 37 40 35 24 43 33 43 23 14 3 7 23 200 MB DIV 37 -1 11 20 15 16 -6 0 -16 -10 -17 7 -10 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 3 3 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 436 454 435 425 414 457 540 612 670 741 806 881 965 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.3 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.6 117.1 117.7 118.2 119.3 120.4 121.3 122.2 123.0 123.8 124.6 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -10. -19. -27. -35. -41. -45. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -15. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -27. -38. -52. -67. -79. -90. -99.-107.-112.-117. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##