* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082015 09/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 55 61 56 49 40 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 55 61 56 49 40 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 34 37 42 49 53 49 45 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 14 12 10 3 9 26 40 49 62 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 3 4 4 3 5 SHEAR DIR 233 223 219 218 196 200 275 260 260 264 273 285 276 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.9 22.9 16.6 13.2 15.6 15.6 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 138 134 131 126 95 76 73 76 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 117 117 115 112 109 84 71 71 73 73 75 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -56.0 -56.3 -56.2 -54.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 47 50 51 59 66 67 60 55 56 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 12 10 10 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -20 -17 -25 -22 -31 16 39 9 -46 -44 0 -2 200 MB DIV -22 -10 6 -4 2 17 27 46 51 5 -7 -12 1 700-850 TADV 1 5 3 11 11 8 10 40 69 23 6 26 33 LAND (KM) 1450 1441 1404 1302 1201 931 651 384 111 478 1228 1224 696 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.1 31.4 32.3 33.2 35.8 39.0 42.5 45.7 47.7 48.3 48.1 47.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.9 60.9 60.9 61.1 61.3 61.2 60.5 58.2 53.7 46.4 36.3 26.3 16.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 6 9 11 15 18 21 24 30 33 33 33 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 8 10 17 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 1. -5. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 25. 31. 26. 19. 10. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)