* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 33 34 36 41 36 34 31 35 25 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 -1 3 4 5 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 286 282 278 281 273 283 321 327 256 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 26.6 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 135 136 138 138 138 138 137 130 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 49 51 50 56 54 58 64 63 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 14 12 12 12 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -24 -24 -25 -30 -17 -11 9 42 101 192 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -3 -13 -17 -6 2 7 -27 10 98 77 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -10 -9 -6 -4 -4 1 23 16 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 507 448 399 352 317 324 383 473 609 820 1120 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.6 28.3 31.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.4 156.3 157.1 157.9 158.7 160.0 161.0 162.1 163.2 164.2 165.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 6 8 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 5 10 13 19 27 27 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -26. -33. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -20. -25. -36. -43. -51. -53. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##