* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 64 54 44 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 64 54 44 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 63 54 47 41 32 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 11 16 15 17 26 30 26 28 27 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 1 0 3 0 3 -2 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 161 178 182 208 230 226 227 230 244 249 264 250 248 SST (C) 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 111 107 102 98 95 94 94 95 95 97 99 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 67 63 61 59 54 52 47 42 35 30 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 25 25 21 18 16 13 11 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 40 31 30 48 34 32 3 10 0 11 23 200 MB DIV 1 8 14 18 22 9 0 -9 -9 -18 -5 -19 -14 700-850 TADV 3 -5 2 6 1 3 2 1 1 1 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 441 424 416 413 425 493 590 643 692 753 810 842 856 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.9 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.3 117.9 118.4 118.9 119.9 121.1 122.0 122.6 123.3 123.9 124.1 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -21. -26. -31. -34. -36. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -20. -24. -27. -32. -32. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -31. -39. -55. -71. -83. -95.-103.-113.-115.-118. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##