* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 50 40 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 50 40 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 50 42 36 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 12 17 16 16 22 24 26 25 27 19 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 1 1 4 2 3 0 -4 -3 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 195 180 212 234 231 226 225 230 240 249 260 254 262 SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 108 104 101 98 97 95 93 94 97 97 99 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 65 62 58 56 54 49 47 41 34 28 24 20 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 24 23 19 16 14 11 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 34 31 38 32 35 8 4 4 20 41 60 200 MB DIV 7 22 14 24 28 8 3 -8 -13 -7 2 -16 -15 700-850 TADV -7 0 6 0 1 1 5 0 2 -1 -2 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 437 426 414 430 457 544 622 666 705 740 798 825 848 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.8 119.3 120.4 121.3 122.1 122.7 123.1 123.6 123.8 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -29. -31. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -28. -34. -50. -62. -74. -82. -89. -95. -97. -99. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##