* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 50 55 60 57 48 38 30 31 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 50 55 60 57 48 38 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 46 53 55 49 43 40 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 15 12 4 11 26 39 48 56 59 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 3 0 0 0 12 8 SHEAR DIR 214 208 195 184 194 261 254 255 261 276 302 295 272 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.1 22.9 16.6 13.3 16.0 15.6 16.4 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 132 132 129 95 75 71 75 75 78 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 116 114 114 112 85 71 68 71 72 74 75 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.7 -56.1 -56.4 -56.2 -54.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 49 47 50 54 65 69 60 51 45 47 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 14 13 10 7 8 17 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -30 -27 -39 -47 8 21 -19 -68 -61 -3 36 85 200 MB DIV -1 0 0 9 8 30 50 47 -1 -20 -63 0 19 700-850 TADV 4 11 11 9 9 16 26 69 26 -27 -29 -32 -6 LAND (KM) 1444 1356 1268 1135 1003 697 405 111 366 894 1505 1026 457 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.9 32.7 34.0 35.2 38.6 42.5 45.7 47.8 48.5 48.1 47.9 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 60.7 60.8 60.8 60.9 60.3 57.8 53.6 47.9 40.8 32.6 23.1 12.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 15 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 35 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 7 12 15 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 6. 2. -3. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -1. -2. -5. -8. -7. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 25. 22. 13. 3. -5. -4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)