* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 49 52 57 51 46 39 33 28 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 49 52 57 51 46 39 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 42 47 53 53 48 44 42 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 9 4 3 11 22 25 33 44 51 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 1 2 3 3 1 3 8 SHEAR DIR 205 195 190 210 244 265 269 266 275 304 322 294 264 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.4 26.8 20.9 16.0 14.7 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 135 132 131 126 86 74 73 77 78 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 116 115 114 109 78 70 70 73 74 72 72 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.7 -56.4 -57.0 -57.5 -55.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 52 55 60 69 70 63 54 54 62 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 12 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -26 -39 -34 32 28 -10 -70 -53 -9 44 98 200 MB DIV -3 -1 21 17 27 50 43 44 0 -35 -42 2 19 700-850 TADV 10 10 8 10 19 16 51 53 16 -21 -34 -79 -60 LAND (KM) 1431 1323 1214 1059 907 620 389 126 568 1167 1457 963 540 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.1 33.1 34.6 36.1 39.7 43.4 46.0 47.1 47.1 46.3 46.0 46.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.1 61.2 61.1 61.0 59.6 56.6 51.8 45.3 37.3 28.3 20.5 14.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 12 15 17 20 21 22 25 29 29 25 23 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 9 14 19 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 17. 22. 16. 11. 4. -2. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED