* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 49 43 37 32 29 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 49 43 37 32 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 38 43 48 46 42 39 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 10 6 3 4 20 35 43 50 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 195 205 208 267 292 267 275 281 316 316 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 25.3 17.5 13.5 16.0 15.9 18.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 132 131 132 112 77 71 75 76 80 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 114 114 114 98 72 69 71 72 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -55.5 -56.1 -57.2 -57.2 -57.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 51 53 61 68 57 53 50 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 11 12 8 9 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -32 -48 -50 -19 33 0 -74 -63 -42 2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 13 18 32 30 40 55 11 -21 -56 -44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 10 17 10 21 53 38 22 44 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1329 1205 1082 925 780 504 188 367 887 1488 1235 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.3 34.5 36.2 37.8 41.3 45.0 47.5 48.5 47.7 45.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.9 60.8 60.7 60.4 60.1 58.0 53.7 47.9 40.9 32.9 24.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 15 17 18 22 24 23 25 29 32 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 12 17 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 10. 6. 1. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -3. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -3. -6. -9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)