* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 09/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 41 49 54 59 62 66 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 41 49 54 59 62 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 27 32 38 45 52 60 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 15 16 9 5 15 17 15 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 -2 -4 -4 0 0 0 2 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 152 123 129 127 124 110 64 40 62 68 76 71 96 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 160 161 163 167 167 169 168 169 170 170 167 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 9 8 10 8 10 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 71 68 66 64 63 67 66 65 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 19 14 5 0 1 3 13 19 7 3 14 6 200 MB DIV 83 60 56 35 18 18 0 23 20 24 -3 -3 0 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 -1 1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 365 364 381 419 366 326 327 328 340 361 374 409 456 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 93.3 94.3 95.2 96.1 97.9 99.7 101.1 102.3 103.4 104.6 106.0 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 39 49 42 35 48 52 44 42 44 42 42 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 21. 29. 34. 39. 42. 46. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 09/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 09/10/15 12 UTC ## ##