* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 42 45 48 46 37 28 21 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 42 45 48 46 37 28 21 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 39 45 47 43 38 34 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 6 3 2 9 27 45 58 57 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 5 1 -5 1 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 201 207 240 293 270 270 270 300 320 298 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.5 26.9 21.6 15.2 13.9 15.3 16.3 18.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 131 133 126 90 74 71 74 79 83 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 114 115 109 82 70 68 71 76 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -55.1 -56.0 -56.6 -56.8 -56.2 -54.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 51 56 66 62 55 48 45 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 9 9 11 11 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -51 -51 -26 26 22 -61 -95 -70 -14 47 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 11 30 18 57 36 38 -14 -50 -49 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 19 16 14 46 42 12 21 18 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1215 1075 942 798 642 404 216 660 1158 1371 557 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.7 36.1 37.9 39.6 43.2 46.7 48.7 48.9 47.2 43.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.5 60.1 59.6 59.2 56.1 50.2 44.0 37.2 27.8 15.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 18 19 24 25 22 27 39 45 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 14 16 16 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 9. 3. -4. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 11. 2. -6. -14. -17. -21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)