* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 20 21 23 27 26 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 3 1 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 237 243 246 244 243 249 252 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 99 97 97 96 95 95 93 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 48 48 43 39 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 14 12 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 25 27 28 3 4 -3 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 18 12 12 13 -11 -10 -14 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 1 0 4 1 3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 421 446 477 515 555 625 679 696 697 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.3 119.7 120.2 120.6 121.5 122.3 122.5 122.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -17. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -19. -31. -42. -52. -60. -64. -69. -71. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##