* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 09/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 28 36 43 50 55 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 28 36 43 50 55 59 62 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 45 53 63 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 17 11 6 7 13 7 7 3 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -6 -7 -5 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 127 125 129 126 127 73 46 37 57 62 12 37 42 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.0 30.8 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 161 164 168 168 170 170 170 170 171 169 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 70 65 67 64 69 70 71 66 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 11 7 3 7 0 25 20 13 0 5 -7 200 MB DIV 61 59 47 27 17 8 22 31 24 24 12 5 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 -2 0 -3 0 0 1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 361 356 371 395 344 295 272 268 262 256 253 290 354 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.6 94.4 95.3 96.2 98.0 99.6 100.9 101.9 103.0 104.3 105.8 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 45 48 39 34 54 56 43 36 39 41 37 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 16. 23. 30. 35. 39. 42. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 09/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 09/10/15 18 UTC ## ##