* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 09/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 36 45 52 59 63 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 36 45 52 59 63 65 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 38 46 55 66 77 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 10 8 4 11 9 7 4 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -8 -4 -3 -1 0 -6 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 120 127 124 124 117 53 32 46 48 345 356 332 38 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.7 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.6 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 162 165 168 169 170 170 170 170 170 170 167 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 10 8 10 8 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 68 68 68 66 73 72 73 70 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 8 4 1 6 11 6 10 8 10 6 -6 0 200 MB DIV 72 53 27 15 11 16 25 17 32 1 27 -18 3 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 3 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 352 374 376 322 291 245 231 198 188 149 162 192 301 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.6 95.4 96.3 97.2 99.0 100.5 101.6 102.6 103.8 105.0 106.4 108.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 37 33 40 62 48 34 37 45 40 38 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 32. 39. 43. 45. 48. 50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 09/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 09/11/15 00 UTC ## ##