* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 39 42 41 36 29 25 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 39 42 41 36 29 25 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 43 41 36 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 8 9 25 30 46 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -4 -1 1 4 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 235 285 317 296 283 286 308 322 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.2 25.9 22.4 16.0 14.2 15.8 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 130 117 93 75 73 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 116 113 102 83 71 70 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.7 -56.4 -56.7 -56.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 60 66 70 65 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 10 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -50 1 17 25 -7 -78 -68 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 18 37 31 42 51 7 -34 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 16 15 27 43 81 100 89 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 983 843 708 553 451 119 612 1184 1451 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 37.3 39.0 40.9 42.8 46.1 48.0 48.2 47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.6 59.9 59.1 57.8 56.4 51.8 44.6 36.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 20 22 23 24 25 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 12 CX,CY: 1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 8. 1. -2. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 6. 1. -6. -10. -13. -18. -25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/11/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED