* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 38 39 39 37 34 31 27 20 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 38 39 39 37 34 31 27 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 38 39 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 9 20 38 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 0 0 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 270 301 290 275 280 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.1 25.6 22.0 17.6 13.8 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 114 91 77 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 101 83 72 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 -55.9 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 60 63 69 72 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 7 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -11 22 18 16 -25 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 34 40 28 53 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 28 39 55 67 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 841 696 536 418 190 299 799 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 39.2 41.1 43.1 45.0 47.9 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 58.7 57.7 55.8 54.0 48.8 42.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 22 24 23 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/11/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)