* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 36 32 27 23 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 36 32 27 23 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 38 38 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 17 27 41 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 1 2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 313 280 262 275 280 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 25.8 22.3 17.9 15.7 13.2 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 116 93 78 74 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 102 84 73 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.7 -56.3 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 65 68 71 69 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 11 27 8 -7 -34 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 24 32 51 60 7 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 30 40 57 77 95 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 711 555 439 216 121 558 1049 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 41.0 42.9 44.8 46.6 49.0 50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.0 57.6 56.2 53.8 51.5 45.4 38.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 24 25 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 18 CX,CY: 5/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 5. 0. -4. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -18. -27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/11/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)