* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 09/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 38 44 50 52 52 51 50 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 38 44 50 52 52 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 35 38 41 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 5 5 6 6 1 3 5 12 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 -4 -4 -1 0 0 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 98 135 125 109 62 92 105 140 156 170 148 166 169 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 156 157 156 156 155 154 152 148 144 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 69 70 65 63 61 61 58 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -13 -5 -2 -7 -5 0 2 0 1 -2 -11 -14 200 MB DIV 18 15 22 37 36 14 14 -10 -1 17 -4 11 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 846 838 831 833 838 845 891 922 939 1007 1083 1189 1327 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.5 109.8 110.6 111.7 113.0 114.7 116.6 118.7 120.9 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 21 21 20 20 23 35 29 25 17 15 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 32. 32. 31. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 09/13/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 09/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##