* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 09/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 36 48 59 68 75 80 81 85 88 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 36 48 59 68 75 80 81 85 88 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 25 27 35 44 56 68 77 82 82 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 10 12 11 10 10 9 3 15 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -7 -4 -3 2 9 3 9 7 SHEAR DIR 13 27 32 27 42 58 19 6 6 249 274 257 260 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 138 138 138 139 138 138 135 133 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 142 141 138 136 134 133 131 130 128 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 70 67 60 56 57 61 66 64 61 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 14 15 14 13 13 14 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 60 64 62 53 41 34 39 18 28 68 66 200 MB DIV 57 44 39 7 -46 -24 -22 21 43 78 68 36 -6 700-850 TADV -14 -13 -13 -13 -14 -5 0 1 0 1 5 4 2 LAND (KM) 1913 1842 1733 1637 1543 1421 1351 1368 1454 1594 1753 1961 2133 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.8 17.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.6 36.8 37.8 38.9 40.4 41.5 42.0 41.9 41.2 40.6 39.8 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 6 7 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 25 24 20 14 13 11 9 7 6 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 28. 39. 48. 55. 60. 61. 65. 68. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 09/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 09/13/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)