* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 09/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 26 28 29 30 30 32 35 41 47 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 26 28 29 30 30 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 29 28 26 25 23 22 16 17 9 12 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -1 1 5 2 4 0 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 275 277 273 277 282 274 309 284 329 331 9 15 6 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.7 30.2 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 165 166 166 164 162 160 155 163 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 140 142 144 144 141 138 139 138 146 157 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 10 9 11 10 14 11 15 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 63 65 66 63 58 55 50 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 4 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -41 -43 -42 -38 -31 -32 -1 -6 2 -2 -10 13 200 MB DIV -1 3 22 36 21 29 26 13 -34 -17 -5 11 6 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 3 2 6 5 2 0 0 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 123 114 106 121 136 184 224 211 142 10 -153 -347 -297 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.4 22.3 22.4 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.4 96.3 96.0 95.6 95.7 96.4 97.7 99.3 101.2 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 5 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 34 36 37 43 57 61 46 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 15. 21. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 09/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 09/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 09/13/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)