* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 09/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 47 59 68 76 80 80 78 80 85 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 42 47 59 68 76 80 80 78 80 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 36 41 52 66 79 87 84 78 74 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 13 14 8 10 10 13 18 20 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -5 -10 -6 -3 4 9 14 8 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 37 39 43 60 77 27 359 323 311 277 262 263 246 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 138 137 137 138 139 138 136 134 136 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 136 135 134 132 133 132 130 130 131 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 66 62 59 56 63 66 70 69 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 15 15 16 15 15 17 18 19 23 28 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 48 47 44 32 23 34 19 9 -4 -25 -20 200 MB DIV 46 49 12 -26 -31 -18 14 79 83 73 69 80 86 700-850 TADV -13 -12 -11 -10 -6 -1 0 3 4 13 17 30 26 LAND (KM) 1855 1758 1664 1592 1523 1436 1447 1516 1693 1943 2266 2138 1990 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.6 13.7 15.5 17.7 20.6 23.8 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.6 37.6 38.4 39.3 40.6 41.3 41.5 41.1 40.2 39.1 37.7 35.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 9 9 8 6 6 7 11 14 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 24 22 18 13 9 7 6 9 21 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 34. 43. 51. 55. 55. 53. 55. 60. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 09/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 09/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 09/13/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED