* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 09/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 28 29 29 30 33 35 43 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 28 29 29 30 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 21 24 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 28 28 24 28 12 19 13 10 6 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 0 2 4 0 1 3 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 268 269 271 275 278 295 301 301 339 322 345 279 260 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.0 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 166 166 165 163 160 156 150 156 167 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 143 144 144 140 137 133 130 138 149 157 160 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 13 11 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 67 68 66 60 54 52 49 47 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -46 -41 -38 -40 -44 -8 -12 -9 -12 -25 -1 -3 200 MB DIV 0 15 39 22 10 33 13 -1 -34 0 -8 25 16 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 3 5 6 6 -4 -1 0 -3 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 91 102 113 141 153 183 171 112 0 -132 -317 -431 -371 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.8 24.4 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.2 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.5 96.4 96.3 96.3 96.0 96.0 96.5 97.6 99.0 100.9 102.6 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 4 4 3 4 5 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 35 37 40 52 56 39 12 21 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 13. 15. 23. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 09/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 09/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 09/13/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED