* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 09/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 39 44 54 60 64 67 65 67 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 39 44 54 60 64 67 65 67 72 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 49 60 68 69 65 62 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 15 10 7 7 21 21 30 29 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -8 -7 -2 6 8 11 2 2 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 47 62 75 70 340 267 288 269 247 226 217 225 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 137 139 139 135 133 136 141 146 143 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 135 136 136 130 127 128 133 135 130 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 65 61 59 54 58 59 58 57 59 59 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 15 17 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 50 44 42 36 51 55 43 17 6 1 44 200 MB DIV 56 33 -4 -8 -3 -22 51 56 73 55 61 94 45 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -9 -6 -4 0 3 8 8 12 15 9 3 LAND (KM) 1773 1698 1625 1576 1531 1548 1659 1797 1944 2171 2473 2373 2087 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 20 15 9 6 3 7 21 18 12 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 19. 29. 35. 39. 42. 41. 42. 47. 50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 09/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 09/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 09/14/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)