* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 09/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 29 33 39 45 50 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 22 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 25 23 27 20 14 12 4 7 3 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -1 0 6 3 2 -1 4 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 264 273 278 276 276 310 286 330 357 31 134 239 209 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.7 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 166 166 164 161 159 163 171 171 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 144 144 143 140 138 140 146 158 165 170 170 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 10 8 12 10 13 10 14 10 13 700-500 MB RH 64 66 69 71 71 66 61 60 57 55 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -47 -35 -38 -39 -41 -8 -13 -4 -9 -19 14 10 200 MB DIV 11 32 25 18 46 29 12 -21 -10 1 8 23 13 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 4 8 4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 79 95 113 137 153 163 122 20 -132 -312 -290 -125 -14 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.3 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.5 96.4 96.3 96.3 96.2 96.6 97.6 99.1 100.9 102.9 104.6 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 3 2 3 6 7 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 37 39 44 41 26 31 0 0 0 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. 0. -1. 0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 09/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 09/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 09/14/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)