* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 09/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 34 39 41 40 40 39 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 34 39 41 40 40 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 29 30 31 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 3 3 2 4 8 16 14 12 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 91 79 76 85 92 267 125 142 158 181 169 165 180 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 156 154 151 151 149 145 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 66 64 64 62 62 61 59 55 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 0 -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -11 -7 -9 8 11 200 MB DIV 11 18 18 11 4 2 27 0 4 0 -1 -11 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 784 787 793 811 828 831 847 921 989 1067 1161 1266 1363 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.0 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.4 110.7 111.2 111.6 112.8 114.4 116.2 118.2 120.0 121.6 122.9 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 10 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 20 24 39 21 19 18 19 15 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 19. 21. 20. 20. 19. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##