* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 09/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 23 26 30 32 34 33 32 31 32 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 23 26 30 32 34 33 32 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 28 28 27 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 5 3 1 8 9 15 11 12 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 68 56 83 97 132 178 145 149 171 181 193 174 184 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 158 157 153 150 149 146 139 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 66 64 64 61 60 60 60 58 58 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 -5 -1 0 -6 -2 -10 -12 -8 7 7 32 200 MB DIV 23 20 24 13 3 27 13 30 22 24 25 15 17 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 3 2 4 6 4 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 729 735 746 766 784 756 785 867 912 991 1069 1171 1266 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.2 111.6 113.0 114.6 116.4 118.1 119.7 120.9 122.0 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 19 23 30 30 15 11 12 19 16 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##