* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 09/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 34 42 49 52 55 55 57 60 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 34 42 49 52 55 55 57 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 21 25 31 37 41 43 42 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 11 5 4 5 11 7 19 22 25 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -8 -6 -3 -1 4 9 7 9 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 78 94 99 82 24 328 334 255 256 242 251 247 264 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 144 144 140 137 136 135 136 136 134 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 141 139 139 133 129 128 129 128 126 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 57 56 57 56 58 60 65 63 61 56 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR 51 40 36 31 32 27 24 17 17 38 15 4 -31 200 MB DIV -6 -19 -35 -40 -45 -9 35 76 67 68 18 23 40 700-850 TADV -10 -6 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 11 15 11 17 LAND (KM) 1526 1469 1414 1382 1354 1369 1423 1556 1729 1969 2205 2341 2246 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.9 13.8 15.1 16.7 18.8 21.0 23.2 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 39.9 40.7 41.3 41.9 42.6 42.9 42.6 42.1 41.2 40.5 39.7 38.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 7 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 18 16 14 12 12 10 5 7 18 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 35. 37. 40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 09/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 09/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 09/14/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)