* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 09/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 30 32 33 37 42 47 52 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 33 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 33 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 29 29 21 14 16 6 6 5 1 0 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 3 6 4 0 -3 1 1 3 9 0 SHEAR DIR 274 280 287 303 316 314 347 21 25 84 21 317 271 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.8 30.8 31.0 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 163 163 166 170 170 170 170 170 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 143 143 143 146 153 159 165 168 168 171 161 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 11 9 8 13 10 13 10 13 9 11 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 73 71 67 66 63 61 60 58 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -41 -44 -56 -48 -29 -23 -31 -24 -12 1 23 24 200 MB DIV 28 2 22 33 22 5 4 8 8 6 10 9 11 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 1 1 -1 -3 0 0 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 65 53 47 9 -32 -135 -267 -341 -185 -44 60 74 -11 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.0 97.4 97.8 98.2 99.2 100.5 102.2 103.9 105.5 107.1 108.7 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 23 12 48 31 0 0 0 82 66 54 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 12. 17. 22. 27. 32. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 09/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 09/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 09/14/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)