* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 43 52 62 70 77 83 88 95 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 43 52 62 70 77 83 88 95 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 50 63 75 85 94 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 12 12 12 4 1 1 2 4 5 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 -2 -3 6 4 3 0 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 79 65 79 74 59 53 78 330 340 102 82 104 16 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 129 130 132 136 137 138 138 138 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 131 132 134 138 139 139 136 135 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 84 82 80 75 77 75 76 73 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 9 15 12 13 10 6 -3 -4 -3 -2 2 1 8 200 MB DIV 41 66 82 71 37 -10 -1 34 26 41 34 58 30 700-850 TADV -1 -5 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 468 520 604 708 824 1062 1322 1547 1758 1939 1794 1665 1537 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.8 21.2 22.5 23.8 26.2 28.7 31.0 33.2 35.2 36.9 38.6 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 11 17 12 17 18 15 24 28 27 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 32. 42. 50. 57. 63. 68. 75. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/14/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)