* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 09/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 33 35 36 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 33 35 36 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 27 26 24 23 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 3 2 6 8 14 14 17 15 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 60 82 88 120 125 119 155 162 185 193 213 201 229 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 158 156 149 146 142 135 128 123 123 124 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 65 64 61 60 59 57 54 50 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -7 -3 1 -1 -4 -14 -35 -16 -7 -15 15 25 200 MB DIV 23 22 11 6 9 9 17 11 26 19 20 17 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 2 2 4 2 -3 -4 -9 -3 LAND (KM) 621 634 653 691 695 676 736 786 831 902 939 966 1017 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.0 21.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.6 110.1 110.8 111.5 113.2 115.1 117.1 118.6 119.9 120.6 121.1 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 7 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 23 28 41 18 9 6 4 6 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 15. 16. 14. 11. 9. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##