* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 09/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 37 41 47 53 59 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 33 39 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 33 40 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 30 22 14 18 16 7 7 4 2 2 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 6 6 2 -1 2 1 2 3 6 1 SHEAR DIR 276 285 301 318 325 318 14 31 39 65 52 174 260 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.3 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 161 161 161 166 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 140 139 140 147 154 160 165 167 167 170 169 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 9 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 70 68 65 63 61 58 60 57 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -43 -60 -50 -38 -24 -25 -12 -18 10 11 38 11 200 MB DIV 21 30 31 21 14 12 -15 11 8 -3 3 -1 8 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 1 2 -4 -2 -2 0 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 63 49 10 -20 -51 -153 -310 -322 -158 -44 52 89 40 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.9 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.4 97.7 98.0 98.3 99.3 100.9 102.6 104.3 105.9 107.4 108.8 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 4 6 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 19 50 39 0 0 0 0 75 62 58 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 12. 16. 22. 28. 34. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 09/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 09/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 09/14/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)