* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 09/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 25 30 34 37 38 37 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 25 30 34 37 38 37 35 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 27 26 24 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 10 8 13 11 13 15 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 67 77 84 95 96 142 148 164 186 192 199 223 246 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 159 156 150 148 143 135 128 123 123 123 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 4 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 67 66 63 62 62 58 55 51 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -4 5 5 5 4 -10 -6 -4 5 11 40 58 200 MB DIV 26 22 17 21 29 27 36 17 23 26 19 27 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 2 1 3 7 5 0 -2 -1 7 LAND (KM) 646 652 665 710 730 711 759 801 854 902 953 986 1017 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.8 111.6 113.3 115.3 117.2 118.8 119.9 120.8 121.4 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 5 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 24 40 20 9 7 5 6 4 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 09/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##