* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 09/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 37 40 40 37 37 38 39 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 37 40 40 37 37 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 34 33 31 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 4 3 3 7 14 15 24 29 33 37 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -3 -1 -2 -3 3 8 7 6 4 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 106 91 359 300 306 319 273 268 254 273 254 245 231 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 141 139 137 134 137 138 141 148 154 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 137 135 133 130 127 128 127 130 136 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 52 54 55 57 56 53 49 48 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 29 17 22 27 24 24 35 34 37 34 32 200 MB DIV -30 -34 -50 -47 -38 17 47 53 11 1 -13 24 2 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 5 5 1 3 LAND (KM) 1456 1433 1415 1411 1410 1420 1473 1569 1677 1740 1727 1716 1693 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 12 10 11 20 18 8 10 12 16 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. -2. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 17. 20. 20. 17. 17. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 09/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 09/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 09/15/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)