* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 09/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 28 32 37 43 49 55 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 30 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 35 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 19 12 15 17 8 7 3 2 2 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 4 4 3 -2 2 2 0 8 1 4 SHEAR DIR 278 296 315 324 303 351 10 22 42 91 216 245 230 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.5 32.1 31.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 161 164 168 171 170 170 169 170 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 141 145 150 158 163 166 167 170 170 171 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 13 10 14 10 13 9 12 8 10 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 71 67 64 61 59 59 57 55 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -60 -49 -37 -30 -21 -23 -18 -10 13 11 25 0 200 MB DIV 42 30 17 28 13 -16 5 10 2 11 16 18 38 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 1 -5 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 2 -2 LAND (KM) 73 37 -9 -56 -102 -244 -399 -241 -134 -59 0 46 68 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.5 25.2 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.5 97.9 98.3 98.8 100.2 101.9 103.6 105.2 106.5 107.7 109.1 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 6 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 6 39 34 0 0 0 58 70 67 63 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 12. 18. 24. 30. 34. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 09/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 09/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 09/15/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED