* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 67 75 81 84 82 78 76 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 67 75 81 84 82 78 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 50 64 80 90 91 86 78 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 8 4 2 2 1 4 8 10 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -4 -3 0 0 1 0 5 4 8 3 0 SHEAR DIR 65 58 50 49 56 71 11 227 275 299 277 293 289 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 129 130 131 134 137 139 137 133 129 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 130 130 131 132 135 135 131 126 122 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 79 79 76 77 75 76 75 75 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 26 32 30 22 25 15 5 -4 -17 -41 -26 200 MB DIV 82 61 45 53 40 20 67 47 69 73 48 5 24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 -1 0 0 3 9 LAND (KM) 615 707 812 907 1005 1210 1352 1500 1605 1708 1817 1953 2063 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.6 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.4 22.6 23.8 24.8 25.8 27.8 29.4 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.4 35.7 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 12 17 16 11 10 15 14 13 12 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 31. 42. 50. 56. 59. 57. 53. 51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/15/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED