* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 09/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 27 32 36 37 37 38 40 43 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 27 32 36 37 37 38 40 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 10 13 10 13 11 12 12 15 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 68 81 83 93 113 141 134 147 146 133 139 135 131 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 159 158 155 153 150 145 144 147 150 149 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 68 67 65 63 63 60 57 53 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 6 3 4 7 5 6 17 25 39 52 82 200 MB DIV 32 15 18 30 22 24 22 30 19 15 18 3 5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 654 687 726 778 797 840 920 1017 1128 1257 1419 1623 1802 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.1 17.7 16.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.7 110.4 111.2 112.1 114.1 116.4 118.5 120.5 122.1 123.7 125.4 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 12 10 9 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 23 37 23 17 20 20 21 17 30 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 17. 17. 18. 20. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 09/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 09/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##