* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 09/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 43 42 39 37 39 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 43 42 39 37 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 42 45 45 44 41 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 1 0 3 10 10 16 22 29 29 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 -2 -2 3 7 5 6 3 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 21 150 269 292 298 261 261 268 255 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 140 138 135 135 137 138 141 146 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 136 134 131 127 127 128 127 129 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 53 56 56 58 56 53 48 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 11 18 24 18 13 19 29 24 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -46 -42 -26 2 44 44 17 -3 3 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 4 6 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1415 1408 1406 1409 1416 1434 1519 1594 1643 1662 1616 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 11 11 13 24 12 7 11 15 20 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 18. 17. 14. 12. 14. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 09/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 09/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 09/15/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)