* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 57 63 68 69 69 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 57 63 68 69 69 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 52 62 67 71 70 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 14 10 7 3 4 3 5 7 14 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -7 -8 -4 -1 -1 -1 1 0 3 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 61 63 58 63 59 294 277 260 266 258 286 297 297 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 130 131 133 136 137 138 137 133 131 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 130 130 131 135 134 134 132 128 125 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -53.6 -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 75 77 76 77 77 77 76 76 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 37 42 32 22 16 22 15 5 -4 -18 -30 -26 200 MB DIV 57 33 27 24 14 21 75 76 94 43 40 0 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 720 816 919 1013 1110 1296 1442 1568 1691 1817 1959 1935 1864 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 22.7 23.8 24.9 25.8 26.8 28.7 30.3 31.7 33.0 34.3 35.7 37.4 39.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 15 11 10 13 18 14 14 12 9 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 38. 43. 44. 44. 41. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/15/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)