* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 09/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 42 45 44 43 42 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 42 45 44 43 42 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 44 44 43 40 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 8 12 5 13 18 22 25 25 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 2 5 4 4 3 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 32 58 335 320 335 315 290 256 264 242 238 232 220 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 141 139 136 135 135 136 137 138 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 137 134 132 127 126 124 124 123 123 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 53 55 55 55 54 54 50 48 45 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 23 8 9 11 12 3 -3 12 19 27 56 91 103 200 MB DIV -46 -43 -32 -9 17 29 19 -10 -17 -11 12 20 31 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 2 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 1345 1309 1279 1267 1256 1263 1294 1373 1455 1516 1533 1531 1525 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.9 14.7 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 42.8 43.5 44.1 44.6 45.4 46.0 46.4 46.7 47.1 47.6 48.3 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 16 17 20 25 21 16 16 18 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 19. 18. 17. 19. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 09/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 09/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 09/15/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)