* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 09/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 31 36 43 49 55 59 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 35 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 36 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 14 15 14 6 7 4 3 5 11 18 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 5 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 311 325 303 331 360 34 35 120 170 213 242 228 233 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.4 32.0 31.6 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 164 166 168 170 171 170 170 170 170 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 145 148 151 157 162 166 168 170 170 171 168 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 11 10 14 11 14 10 12 8 10 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 67 65 63 60 58 56 57 55 54 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -43 -29 -24 -26 -26 -19 -22 12 9 25 10 11 200 MB DIV 15 -1 13 8 -15 4 2 8 11 12 15 43 37 700-850 TADV 1 0 -6 -7 -1 -1 -1 1 1 3 2 -2 2 LAND (KM) 6 -40 -88 -158 -229 -393 -251 -141 -51 7 62 80 30 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.3 24.9 25.7 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.2 98.7 99.4 100.1 101.7 103.4 104.9 106.4 107.6 108.8 110.2 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 48 40 0 0 0 0 72 71 64 68 65 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 09/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 09/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 09/15/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED