* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 54 59 62 63 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 54 59 62 63 62 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 51 58 62 64 62 60 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 10 7 4 4 4 6 6 11 18 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 1 2 5 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 63 58 63 59 44 263 267 257 243 273 294 293 295 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 133 134 138 139 137 133 130 129 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 131 132 132 136 136 134 127 124 123 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 77 75 77 76 77 77 77 72 72 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 12 12 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 37 42 32 22 16 18 21 9 1 -5 -20 -14 -25 200 MB DIV 33 28 24 14 10 55 83 99 64 47 7 14 15 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 826 916 1008 1110 1213 1363 1508 1635 1782 1925 1972 1895 1842 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.1 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 23.9 24.8 25.8 26.8 27.8 29.5 31.1 32.5 34.0 35.4 37.2 39.0 40.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 12 10 11 16 14 13 12 8 11 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 34. 37. 38. 37. 36. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/15/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)