* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 09/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 26 28 29 29 29 30 32 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 26 28 29 29 29 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 13 8 11 11 10 9 12 11 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 62 80 115 135 158 150 176 188 185 183 228 239 268 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 155 154 151 147 141 138 139 145 146 147 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 67 67 66 64 61 58 53 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 9 12 10 -5 4 13 19 30 49 78 87 200 MB DIV 30 41 34 38 27 17 34 29 8 8 -9 8 37 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 1 4 5 4 2 0 3 5 1 LAND (KM) 700 739 773 777 794 859 938 1037 1166 1281 1436 1608 1753 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.1 18.9 18.2 17.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.8 111.6 112.6 113.6 116.0 118.1 120.1 121.8 123.0 124.4 125.9 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 11 12 10 9 7 6 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 33 40 24 13 15 20 16 9 9 23 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 09/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 09/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##