* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 66 71 73 74 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 66 71 73 74 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 34 43 54 66 76 80 79 76 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 4 4 1 2 3 9 9 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 56 61 60 62 29 318 48 271 201 255 290 307 300 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 135 135 137 138 137 136 133 132 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 133 133 134 134 131 131 128 128 128 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 72 73 77 75 78 77 76 73 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 11 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 39 30 21 16 12 22 23 20 13 4 -1 -10 -18 200 MB DIV 9 12 2 -5 -7 47 59 104 67 63 19 28 38 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1002 1099 1197 1282 1368 1501 1614 1725 1851 1955 1841 1764 1735 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.9 14.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.3 29.2 30.7 32.0 33.2 34.5 35.9 37.7 39.4 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 13 14 19 28 22 21 26 24 20 19 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 41. 46. 48. 49. 49. 50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/15/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/15/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)