* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 55 63 68 69 70 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 55 63 68 69 70 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 34 43 52 62 69 71 71 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 3 2 2 4 8 6 9 9 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 4 3 7 6 6 SHEAR DIR 62 64 66 68 305 332 172 177 199 252 286 296 283 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 137 136 138 138 136 132 130 131 132 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 134 136 135 131 126 123 126 126 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 73 75 74 76 76 76 71 69 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 12 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 34 23 18 15 19 20 13 28 33 17 16 -7 -19 200 MB DIV 1 -7 -13 -16 11 60 121 78 51 15 24 27 29 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1117 1222 1320 1399 1480 1648 1796 1924 1950 1865 1779 1730 1680 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 6 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 24 28 21 25 22 19 17 15 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 30. 38. 43. 44. 45. 45. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/16/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)