* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 45 55 61 67 71 75 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 45 55 61 67 71 75 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 45 58 72 87 100 111 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 4 7 8 9 9 3 5 7 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -3 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 1 216 272 335 25 92 134 179 171 173 117 110 81 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 166 166 165 165 165 165 167 168 167 164 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 75 75 75 66 58 50 50 53 61 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 83 85 86 85 92 90 92 88 100 101 111 121 200 MB DIV 87 79 66 43 44 49 31 2 -1 1 27 51 64 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -5 -4 0 0 0 0 -3 0 3 6 LAND (KM) 1676 1788 1903 1983 2066 2157 2191 2196 2176 2079 1875 1552 1178 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.2 12.0 13.0 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 170.9 172.2 173.5 174.5 175.6 177.2 178.2 178.7 178.8 178.0 176.1 173.2 170.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 10 8 6 4 3 7 12 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 53 52 58 61 56 59 72 83 86 75 60 54 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 20. 30. 36. 42. 46. 50. 53. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##