* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952015 09/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 37 46 53 58 61 64 67 69 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 37 46 53 58 61 64 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 40 49 58 68 77 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 4 1 4 11 10 12 12 13 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 0 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 241 259 303 324 121 161 168 195 197 206 167 148 140 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 168 168 168 167 166 165 164 164 164 162 162 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 12 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 75 74 70 62 54 49 51 57 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 86 86 89 88 90 104 102 99 94 107 104 117 200 MB DIV 65 45 40 52 53 41 10 3 -6 14 40 68 70 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1683 1765 1852 1911 1975 2049 2083 2090 2047 1906 1689 1436 1232 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.7 14.7 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 171.0 172.3 173.5 174.5 175.6 177.1 178.0 178.4 178.1 176.8 174.9 172.8 171.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 11 10 8 6 3 4 8 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 53 55 63 73 71 66 74 82 75 56 55 74 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 26. 33. 38. 41. 44. 48. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952015 INVEST 09/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##