* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 09/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 50 55 56 57 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 50 55 56 57 56 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 52 53 53 52 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 5 4 5 9 10 15 15 16 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 1 3 1 6 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 60 48 297 311 336 229 210 231 262 281 299 303 319 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 139 139 135 130 128 127 130 132 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 135 137 136 129 124 122 120 122 123 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 72 73 71 74 74 75 70 71 69 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 25 30 34 36 36 28 26 25 9 -6 -17 -1 18 200 MB DIV -3 -5 15 53 67 83 64 63 51 33 28 43 45 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -1 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1261 1330 1401 1477 1556 1688 1807 1954 2021 1982 1955 1955 2003 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.1 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.7 33.1 34.3 35.7 37.3 38.8 40.4 41.8 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 18 23 23 18 23 18 18 21 21 17 9 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 25. 30. 31. 32. 31. 32. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 09/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 09/16/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)